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This paper applies life table models to 1999-00 residential aged care data and estimates the probabilities of using an aged care home over a lifetime for Australian man and women at various ages. The results show that on current patterns of use , there is 0.42 probability that members of a female birth cohort will enter an aged care home for permanent care at least once over their lifetime. The corresponding probability for males is 0.24. A woman at age 65 faces a probability as high as 0.46 of using an aged care home for permanent care before her death compared with 0.28 for a man at the same age.
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